Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Vendor lead times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for vendor lead times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 5.0 in September 2026, versus 10.0 in August 2026.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 353 data points overall. The period covered by the series stretches from May 1997 to September 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few summary statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index registered a minimum of -27.0 in August 2022; it recorded its maximum of 41.0 in May 2021; it had a mean value of 5.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 12.0000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 10.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 5.00000 |
Suggestion. To simplify complex analyses, we organize time series into data sets and worksheets. By moving down the page, you will discover how we arranged further information related to the statistics provided here.
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will vendor lead times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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