Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Inventories of raw materials: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Fifth District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories of raw materials (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -1.0 in September 2026, compared to 3.0 in August 2026.
Sample. The monthly series plotted above has a total of 353 records. The series covers the time range extending from May 1997 to September 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few simple statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of -2.2; it hit a peak of 14.0 in April 2015; it registered a minimum of -26.0 in May 2021.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 3.00000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 3.00000 |
| 2026-09-30 | -1.00000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will raw materials inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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