Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Wages: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for wages (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 48.0 in September 2025, versus 47.0 in August 2025.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are a total of 259 data points. The series covers the time span extending from January 1997 to September 2025.
History. Here are a few statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 37.3; it attained a maximum of 73.0 in February 2021; it reached a minimum of 0.0 in April 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 46.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 47.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 48.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will wages increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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