Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 25.0 in September 2026, as in August.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 353 data points. The time range covered by the series is from May 1997 to September 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index registered a minimum of -20.0 in October 2022; it recorded its highest level of 64.0 in February 2002; it had a mean of 29.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 28.0000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 25.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 25.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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