Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 3.0 in September 2025, compared to 1.0 in August.
Sample. There are 259 data points in the monthly series displayed in the chart above. The time span covered by the series extends from January 1997 to September 2025.
History. Here's a snapshot of some descriptive statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index achieved a maximum of 57.0 in March 2018; it reached its minimum of -16.0 in April 2025; it was equal on average to 27.6.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 6.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 1.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 3.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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