Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 33.0 in September 2026, compared to 26.0 in August.
Sample. In the monthly series presented in the chart, there are 395 observations overall. The time range covered by the series is from November 1993 to September 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at some statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 30.9; it recorded its highest level of 57.0 in February 2002; it registered a minimum of -16.0 in April 2025.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 33.0000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 26.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 33.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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