Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -5.0 in September 2025, compared to 7.0 in August.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are a total of 290 observations. The period covered by the series stretches from January 1993 to September 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few summary statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 29.6; it reached its highest level of 65.0 in March 2018; it reached its minimum of -11.0 in April 2025.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 7.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 7.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | -5.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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