Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Local business conditions: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in the Fifth District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for local business conditions (share of CEOs seeing a future improvement minus share forecasting a worsening) was -4.0 in September 2025, compared to -11.0 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 136 data points overall in the monthly time series displayed in the figure above. The series covers the time period stretching from February 2010 to September 2025.
History. Here's a peek at some descriptive statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -31.0 in June 2022; it reached its maximum of 53.0 in April 2021; it had a mean of 20.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | -6.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | -11.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | -4.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will local business conditions improve or worsen increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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