Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Fifth District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -2.0 in September 2026, compared to 2.0 in August 2026.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are a total of 353 observations. The series covers the time range stretching from May 1997 to September 2026.
History. Here are some simple statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 10.9; it reached a trough of -30.0 in October 2022; it attained a maximum of 40.0 in February 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 5.00000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 2.00000 |
| 2026-09-30 | -2.00000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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