Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Fifth District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -8.0 in September 2025, compared to -10.0 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 259 records in the monthly series presented in the plot above. The time range covered by the series is from January 1997 to September 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few simple statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its minimum of -32.0 in April 2020; it hit a peak of 34.0 in June 2002; it had a mean value of 10.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | -9.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | -10.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | -8.0 |
Nugget of wisdom. To simplify exploration, we group series into data sets and worksheets. By moving down the page, you will discover how we structured further information related to the statistics provided here.
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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