Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Inventories of finished goods: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories of finished goods (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 5.0 in September 2025, compared to 9.0 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 259 data points overall in the monthly time series displayed in the chart above. The series covers the time range stretching from January 1997 to September 2025.
History. Take a look at a few descriptive statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to -3.3; it reached its highest level of 15.0 in May 2015; it reached its minimum of -46.0 in August 2000.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 9.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 9.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 5.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will finished goods inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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