Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments was 32.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in February 2026, compared to 23.0 in January 2026.
Sample. There are 296 data points overall in the monthly time series displayed in the plot above. The time range covered by the series extends from July 2001 to February 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few descriptive statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a maximum of 55.0 in May 2021; it recorded a minimum of -34.0 in March 2020; it had a mean of 25.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 21.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 23.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | 32.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: Shipments |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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