Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments was 21.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in December 2025, versus 20.0 in November.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 294 records overall. The period covered by the series goes from July 2001 to December 2025.
History. Here are a few summary statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 25.4; it recorded its maximum of 55.0 in May 2021; it hit a minimum of -34.0 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 30.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 20.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 21.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: Shipments |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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