Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments was 34.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in September 2026, compared to 37.0 in August.
Sample. This monthly series has 303 data points. The series covers the span of time extending from July 2001 to September 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some summary statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 25.5; it reached a maximum of 59.0 in May 2021; it reached a trough of -38.0 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 37.0000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 37.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 34.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: Shipments |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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