Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders was 20.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in December 2025, compared to 16.0 in November 2025.
Sample. There are 294 data points in the monthly time series shown in the plot above. The series covers the time range stretching from July 2001 to December 2025.
History. Check out a few statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 22.8; it recorded its highest level of 51.0 in October 2003; it reached its minimum of -32.0 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 11.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 16.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 20.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: New orders |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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