Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for production was 22.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in December 2025, as in November.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are a total of 294 data points. The time period covered by the series extends from July 2001 to December 2025.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few summary statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 25.6; it reached its maximum of 56.0 in October 2003; it reached a minimum of -35.0 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 33.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 22.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 22.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: Production |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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