Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for production stood at 33.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in September 2026, unchanged with respect to August.
Sample. This monthly time series has 303 records. The series covers the period going from July 2001 to September 2026.
History. Take a look at a few descriptive statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 25.7; it recorded its maximum of 56.0 in October 2003; it recorded a bottom of -35.0 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 30.0000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 33.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 33.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: Production |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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