Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for production stood at 36.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in September 2026, versus 35.0 in the previous month.
Sample. The monthly series presented in the graph has 303 observations overall. The span of time covered by the series extends from July 2001 to September 2026.
History. Check out some summary statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index hit a minimum of -36.0 in March 2020; it reached its maximum of 59.0 in September 2021; it had a mean value of 25.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 38.0000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 35.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 36.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: Production |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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