Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: New orders for exports: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders for exports stood at 8.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in February 2026, compared to -6.0 in January 2026.
Sample. There are 296 observations in the monthly time series presented in the plot above. The series covers the period stretching from July 2001 to February 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few descriptive statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 6.6; it reached its minimum of -17.0 in March 2020; it recorded its highest level of 26.0 in May 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | -3.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | -6.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | 8.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders for export increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: New orders for exports |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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