Business Leaders Survey: Wages: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Business Leaders Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about service firms in the Second Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for wages (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 36.6 in October 2026, compared to 34.1 in September 2026.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 266 records in total. The series covers the time span stretching from September 2004 to October 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few simple statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a minimum of -20.9 in April 2020; it recorded its highest level of 68.0 in April 2022; it had a mean of 42.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 44.2000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 34.1000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 36.6000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Over the next six months do you expect wages paid to increase or decrease? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.
Current conditions SA
| Series Name | Observations | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Leaders Survey: Wages: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly | 266 | 2004-09-30 | 2026-10-31 |
Future conditions SA
| Series Name | Observations | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Leaders Survey: Wages: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly | 266 | 2004-09-30 | 2026-10-31 |