Business Leaders Survey: Business climate: Future (improve vs worsen; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Business Leaders Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of service firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for business climate (share of CEOs expecting the business climate to improve minus share expecting it to worsen) stood at -20.8 in October 2026, compared to -19.0 in September 2026.
Sample. There are 266 records in the monthly time series shown in the graph above. The time period covered by the series extends from September 2004 to October 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few summary statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached its highest level of 64.0 in April 2021; it registered a minimum of -66.7 in December 2008; it averaged 5.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | -16.5000 |
| 2026-09-30 | -19.0000 |
| 2026-10-31 | -20.8000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Over the next six months do you expect the business climate to improve or worsen? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents expecting the business climate to improve minus share expecting it to worsen) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.
Current conditions SA
| Series Name | Observations | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Leaders Survey: Wages: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly | 266 | 2004-09-30 | 2026-10-31 |
Future conditions SA
| Series Name | Observations | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Leaders Survey: Wages: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly | 266 | 2004-09-30 | 2026-10-31 |