Business Leaders Survey: Business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Business Leaders Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about service firms in the Second Federal Reserve District collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -5.1 in October 2026, compared to 5.0 in September.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are a total of 266 observations. The span of time covered by the series is from September 2004 to October 2026.
History. Here are a few statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 22.6; it recorded a bottom of -52.0 in December 2008; it achieved a maximum of 67.8 in May 2021.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 9.30000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 5.00000 |
| 2026-10-31 | -5.10000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Over the next six months do you expect business activity at this company to increase or decrease? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.
Current conditions SA
| Series Name | Observations | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Leaders Survey: Wages: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly | 266 | 2004-09-30 | 2026-10-31 |
Future conditions SA
| Series Name | Observations | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Leaders Survey: Wages: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly | 266 | 2004-09-30 | 2026-10-31 |