Average Fed Mfg Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - FSR - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Average Fed Mfg Survey (FetchSeries Research)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on an average of regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders stood at 33.7 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in September 2026, compared to 34.7 in August.
Sample. There are 268 data points overall in the monthly series displayed in the plot above. The span of time covered by the series stretches from June 2004 to September 2026.
History. Take a look at some summary statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 29.7; it reached its highest level of 53.5 in January 2017; it hit a trough of -11.2 in October 2022.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 23.6200 |
| 2026-08-31 | 34.6600 |
| 2026-09-30 | 33.7400 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | FetchSeries Research calculations on Federal Reserve data |
| Source type | Data research lab |
| Data licence | Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) + FetchSeries disclaimers |
| Other information | Arithmetic average across 5 regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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