Fifth District Survey of Non-Manufacturing Activity: Local business conditions: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Non-Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Non-Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for local business conditions (share of CEOs seeing a future improvement minus share forecasting a worsening) was -3.0 in September 2026, compared to 8.0 in August 2026.
Sample. There are 190 observations in the monthly series presented in the plot above. The series covers the time range stretching from December 2010 to September 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few simple statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 20.4; it recorded its highest level of 63.0 in April 2021; it registered a minimum of -43.0 in April 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 6.00000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 8.00000 |
| 2026-09-30 | -3.00000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will local business conditions improve or worsen over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Other information | Not available |
Series in the same data set
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