Fifth District Survey of Non-Manufacturing Activity: Average wages: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Non-Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of nonmanufacturing firms surveyed by the Fed, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for average wages (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 50.0 in September 2026, versus 53.0 in the previous month.
Sample. The monthly time series plotted above has 190 data points in total. The time range covered by the series extends from December 2010 to September 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some summary statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 39.9; it hit a peak of 67.0 in March 2022; it recorded a bottom of 9.0 in May 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 47.0000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 53.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will average wages increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Other information | Not available |
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