Fifth District Survey of Non-Manufacturing Activity: Local business conditions: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Non-Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of nonmanufacturing firms surveyed by the Fed, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for local business conditions (share of CEOs seeing a future improvement minus share forecasting a worsening) was 0.0 in September 2026, compared to 9.0 in August.
Sample. There are 190 records in the monthly time series shown in the figure above. The time span covered by the series goes from December 2010 to September 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few descriptive statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a minimum of -57.0 in April 2020; it hit a maximum of 56.0 in January 2011; it had a mean of 20.3.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 9.00000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 9.00000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will local business conditions improve or worsen over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Other information | Not available |
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