Average Fed Srv Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - FSR - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Average Fed Srv Survey (FetchSeries Research)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on an average of regional Federal Reserve services surveys, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity was 8.2 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in September 2026, compared to 8.4 in August.
Sample. There are 153 observations in the monthly series presented in the graph above. The time range covered by the series extends from January 2014 to September 2026.
History. Take a look at a few simple statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index attained a maximum of 62.4 in June 2021; it reached its minimum of -40.0 in April 2020; it had a mean of 24.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 20.8500 |
| 2026-08-31 | 8.42500 |
| 2026-09-30 | 8.25000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | FetchSeries Research calculations on Federal Reserve data |
| Source type | Data research lab |
| Data licence | Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) + FetchSeries disclaimers |
| Other information | Arithmetic average across 3 regional Federal Reserve services surveys |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
Series in the same data set
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