Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Regional general business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of nonmanufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for regional general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 2.0 in September 2026, compared to -6.3 in August.
Sample. This monthly time series has a total of 187 records. The time period covered by the series goes from March 2011 to September 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index reached a maximum of 73.8 in July 2021; it registered a minimum of -44.4 in April 2020; it had a mean value of 29.6.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 15.7000 |
| 2026-08-31 | -6.30000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 2.00000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will regional general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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