Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Firm-level general business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for firm-level general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 20.3 in September 2026, compared to 12.4 in August 2026.
Sample. There are 187 records in the monthly time series shown in the graph above. The series covers the period extending from March 2011 to September 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -26.2 in April 2020; it achieved a maximum of 79.1 in June 2021; it was equal on average to 39.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 41.9000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 12.4000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 20.3000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will firm-level general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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